Economic Dependency Ratios, Fertility, and Poverty Status

A multivariate regression analysis shows that per capita expenditure has a negative effect on fertility, but large changes in per capita expenditure are needed to generate a substantial impact on the expected number of children per woman. Also women’s educational attainment is estimated to decrease fertility, both in rural and urban areas, particularly after schooling reaches the secondary level. The effects of the highest education levels on the expected number of children are relevant, and larger for women living in rural than in urban areas. The husband’s education is generally estimated to have no significant effect in rural areas, while it is found to significantly and substantially decrease the number of expected children in urban areas. Therefore, given the not very large, even if significant, effect of per capita expenditure on fertility, the potential for people to become trapped into a high-fertility-induced poverty status seems limited.